Programme Director, Ms Ottilia Maunganidze Chair of ISS Board, Dr Jakkie Cilliers and Directors of Partner Institutes,
Representatives of the German Federation of Industries,
Representatives of the SWP,
The Kiel Institute and the German Institute of Development and Sustainability,
Members of the Diplomatic Corps,
Distinguished guests,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
When this project was launched in June 2022, President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed the hope that “this venture will greatly enrich public discourse and policymaking, and it will contribute to a better understanding of how Africa can harness its vast resources and extensive energies in the cause of common prosperity.”
Four years later, that ambition is as compelling as ever.
Your work has acquired even greater significance in a world that has changed considerably since this project began.
Dear friends,
The organising question for this capstone conference is:
How can Africa and Europe build on their existing partnership and translate their shared ambitions into practical cooperation that delivers tangible benefits for the people of both continents?
This question is as timely as it is urgent. The question is in part at least shaped by complex histories of slavery and colonialism – histories that will continue to shape the relationship.
The answer to this question is thus not found in a vacuum.
In answering the question, we must take account of the world as it is, the opportunities within our reach and the complexities we must contend with.
The Africa–Europe partnership is taking shape in a world of growing uncertainty and geopolitical rivalry.
Old alliances are fracturing as new ones are being forged.
Old assumptions are being challenged, and transactional politics increasingly define relations between countries.
Indeed, the prevailing context closely resembles the divided world sketched in the four global scenarios developed by African Futures as well as DIRCO’s geo-politics team.
A world that is recoiling from the rules that have governed relations among states for the past 80 years.
A world that is becoming increasingly unequal and unstable.
A world where the political will, required to respond to the challenges of our time, including climate change, is increasingly in short supply.
In this moment, Africa faces the question: What kind of partnership does the continent want with Europe and the rest of the world? Is it time to move to a genuine Compact between ourselves.
At the heart of this is Africa’s determination to take greater control of its economic destiny and secure a more prosperous future for its people.
Our continent has long supplied the raw materials that have generated prosperity elsewhere, while most Africans continue to live in conditions of deprivation.
So, the first requirement for sustainable partnerships, are those that contribute to ending our economic marginalisation and the exploitation of our resources without meaningful structural transformation.
Europe has an important role to play here. There is a meeting place between Europe’s pursuit of resilient supply chains and Africa’s ambition to attract investment into mineral exploration, domestic processing and manufacturing industries.
It can be mutual beneficial relations, with Europe bringing technology and capital to beneficiation at source.
Admittedly, Africa will have to address is conflict and war arcs. For Africa and the EU needs a Partnership for Migration and Mobility, and A Renewed and Enhanced Cooperation for Peace and Security remains an important phenomenon for both.
These areas call for new areas in which mutual benefit can be realised if our collaboration is based on the utility of multilateralism. During the 7th African Union-European Union Summit held in Luanda, Angola from 24 to 25 November 2025, the summit called for “an enhanced and reciprocal partnership for migration and mobility”.
The issue of migration goes hand-in-hand with issues for enhanced co-operation such as drug trafficking and transnational organised crime; border security, including joint efforts to strengthen border management through advanced technology, risk profiling, and training.
Africa can benefit from European Union capacity building and training, especially support for specialised training in financial crime, cybercrime, counter-terrorism, digital forensics, and asset recovery, and strengthening institutions.
Second, our development ambitions are constrained by the burden of debt.
In recent years, 25 African countries have spent more on servicing debt than on the health and education of their people. It is at least 3%-6% more for Africa and countries from the South to access and borrow than non-African states. Yet paradoxically the return of investment is the same, yet to the benefit of the industrialised world.
There is a burden which is compounded by the high cost of borrowing and an international financial architecture whose rules continue to work against developing economies.
Africa therefore looks to its reliable and longstanding partners to support initiatives aimed at changing these circumstances, including the newly launched African Credit Rating Agency and growing momentum towards establishing a borrowers’ club.
We have already demonstrated what cooperation can achieve. The African Union and the EU contributed significantly to the success of South Africa’s G20 Presidency, particularly in building consensus on pressing global economic challenges.
Thirdly, Africa cannot close its annual infrastructure financing gap of some 170 billion US dollars while public finances are under growing pressure and borrowing costs continue to rise. Here it is worth pointing out that the cost on defence spending by the great powers and Europe has gone up to US$3trillion over the past three years.
Equally important is our determination to build a more integrated Africa, with a common market of 1.5 billion people, albeit that compared to China and India who are “one”, we are made up of 54 disparate states who struggles to forge unity.
Europe’s own experience demonstrates the economic possibilities of regional integration. While intra-European trade is at more than 60 percent, trade among African countries is just over 14 percent according to the Afriexam Bank’s latest report.
The Global Gateway initiative offers a practical opportunity to support these ambitions, particularly through investment in transport corridors, modern ports and the infrastructure needed to connect African markets.
We must ensure that these investments support Africa’s own integration priorities and the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, Africa demands a greater voice in the institutions that shape decisions affecting its future, and we need Europe to sharpen its voices with Africa, for Africa.
This includes the UN Security Council and the bodies governing international peace and security, the global economy, trade and finance, including the implementation of resolution 2179, it is not rational that peace in the continent does not receive financial support from the UN Security Council.
The demand for greater representation is echoed by the people of our continent.
Recent Afrobarometer survey findings reflect a desire among Africans for their countries to have a stronger voice and greater influence in global affairs.
Dear colleagues, friends,
As a partner, Europe has much on offer: balanced trade, predictability, respect for rules and sovereignty, and a commitment to multilateralism.
Equally important is its respect for Africa’s efforts to coordinate its positions and speak with one voice.
Africa, in turn, brings its own share of prospects.
We have a growing population, overwhelmingly young and pulsating with energy, talent and creativity.
We possess resources that the world needs to secure a low-carbon future.
We do not just want to supply labour or raw materials.
We want to create viable pathways to employment and entrepreneurship, so that our young people can prosper and thrive at home.
In crafting partnerships and pondering future relations between Africa and Europe, we must also factor obstacles we are likely to encounter. We are not asking for old-style paternalism; we seek genuine partnership – a compact – based on mutual responsibility and mutual accountability.
Let me then outline three challenges that will shape our common futures.
The first is the rightward shift in politics across the world. This is marked by the storming of the political stage by actors who are willing not only to bend the rules but to dispense with them altogether.
Second is the growing disillusionment with democracy, fuelled by the widening gap between the promise of the ballot and the lived realities of our people.
Far too many people in Europe and Africa feel that the vote has not translated into economic opportunity, social justice or material improvements in their lives.
The 2026 Democracy Report by the Swedish institute – V-Dem talks about the “great reversal” of democracy. This democratic backsliding is of great concern, needless to say.
We cannot discount this disaffection when accounting for the rise of the political right and the resurgence of unconstitutional changes of government.
The African Peer Review Mechanism’s report on unconstitutional changes of government makes this point candidly: while citizens value elections, not all embrace the notion that elections alone are sufficient to secure legitimacy.
This growing disenchantment is accompanied by misinformation and disinformation. Conspiracy theories and falsehoods find a receptive audience where trust in institutions is weakened.
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report ranks misinformation and disinformation second only to geo-economic confrontation among global risks over the next two years.
There is also growing concern about the potential misuse of artificial intelligence for harmful purposes.
Third, the unfolding great-power competition.
This moment has brought into sharp focus just how dangerous the world can be when some states treat rules as optional, sovereignty as offensive and submission as a requirement.
To different degrees, Africa and Europe have been on the receiving end of an approach to international relations that treats negotiations as a zero-sum contest and demands concessions and displays of deference from friends and foes alike.
For example, if we do not treat the rare minerals issue with respect and prudence, it runs the risk of becoming another “scramble for Africa’, with serious negative ramifications for Africa.
The magnitude of these challenges makes cooperation between us even more necessary.
Africa-Europe relations: areas of tension
We share convergence on many areas of convergence, but we also have differences.
And if we are serious about the future of Africa-Europe relations, we must also be prepared to confront some uncomfortable realities about our partnership.
One of the themes of this convening concerns precisely those areas where tensions persist between partners.
Some of these tensions came to the fore at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The gatekeeping of vaccines in what became known as “vaccine apartheid”. The travel bans that disproportionately affected Africa and countries of the Global South.
And the spirited opposition to allow the production of generic vaccines, even as humanity confronted a once-in-a-century pandemic that was devastating our societies.
These actions raised profound questions about Europe’s commitment to Africa. These actions called into question the seriousness of Europe’s commitment to address its troubled past and enduring legacy on the continent.
Another such area of tension, and a subject of ongoing dialogue between our continents, is the EU’s carbon tax on exports.
As we all appreciate, the EU is a vital export market for African countries, accounting for 26 percent of our fertiliser exports, 16 percent of our iron and steel, and 12 percent of our aluminium and cement.
Some forecasts suggest that it could cost Africa as much as US$ 25 billion in GDP.
Our jet fuel capabilities from SASOL should find an acceptive market in the European Union.
The consequences for African industries, jobs and livelihoods will be far-reaching. Effectively, African economies and African people will foot the bill for global greenhouse gas emissions, despite having played little role in creating the problem.
We expect Europe to recognise the different circumstances of developing economies balance low-carbon ambitions with Africa’s industrialisation aspirations.
Distinguished guests,
These tensions do not on their own suggest that the partnership between our respective regions is unsustainable.
During my visit to Germany earlier this year, I had the pleasure of interacting with think tanks, parliamentarians and the business community.
I was struck by what I heard during those interactions, including a statement that bears repeating today;
The partnership between Africa and Europe cannot demand allegiance to one bloc or exclusivity. Africa must retain the space to cultivate partnerships with different countries and regions in pursuit of its own interests and development aspirations.
Yet, I concede that as Africans we must address unity and disunity in our own ranks.
Our partnership must be founded on mutual respect and the recognition that we must craft the rules governing our relationship together, as partners meeting at eye level.
But even more significant, a sustainable partnership does not need agreement on every issue.
Indeed, in international relations, as in life, good partnerships are not undone by disagreement.
Let me close with the powerful words with which Jakkie Cilliers concludes his new book: Africa’s Road to Prosperity offers some wise counsel:
And I quote:
Progress is seldom linear and requires resilience and patience. Shocks will come – pandemics, conflicts, climate events, global downturns. What matters is the capacity to recover, learn and continue.
Closed quote.
These words apply to Africa’s future as much as it does to how our continent relates to Europe and the world.
I wish you a successful convening today and a focused and impactful day tomorrow as you discuss the role of evidence and data in anticipating and planning for sustainable futures. And remember to put the uncomfortable questions squarely on the table.
Thank you.
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